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Development and external evaluation of predictions models for mortality of COVID-19 patients using machine learning method

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单位: [1]Yidu Cloud Technol Inc, Hlth Work, 8F,9 Bldg,35 Huayuan North Rd, Beijing 100089, Peoples R China [2]Fujian Med Univ, Sch Publ Hlth, Dept Epidemiol & Hlth Stat, Fujian Prov Key Lab Environm Factors & Canc, Fuzhou 350122, Fujian, Peoples R China [3]Minist Hlth Brunei, Dis Control Div, BB-3910 Bandar Seri Begawan, Brunei [4]Univ Brunei Darussalam, PAPRSB Inst Hlth Sci, BE-1410 Gadong, Brunei [5]Huazhong Univ Sci & Technol,Tongji Hosp,Tongji Med Coll,Dept Neurol,Wuhan,Peoples R China
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关键词: COVID-19 Mortality Prediction Machine learning China

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To predict the mortality of patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). We collected clinical data of COVID-19 patients between January 18 and March 29 2020 in Wuhan, China . Gradient boosting decision tree (GBDT), logistic regression (LR) model, and simplified LR were built to predict the mortality of COVID-19. We also evaluated different models by computing area under curve (AUC), accuracy, positive predictive value (PPV), and negative predictive value (NPV) under fivefold cross-validation. A total of 2924 patients were included in our evaluation, with 257 (8.8%) died and 2667 (91.2%) survived during hospitalization. Upon admission, there were 21 (0.7%) mild cases, 2051 (70.1%) moderate case, 779 (26.6%) severe cases, and 73 (2.5%) critically severe cases. The GBDT model exhibited the highest fivefold AUC, which was 0.941, followed by LR (0.928) and LR-5 (0.913). The diagnostic accuracies of GBDT, LR, and LR-5 were 0.889, 0.868, and 0.887, respectively. In particular, the GBDT model demonstrated the highest sensitivity (0.899) and specificity (0.889). The NPV of all three models exceeded 97%, while their PPV values were relatively low, resulting in 0.381 for LR, 0.402 for LR-5, and 0.432 for GBDT. Regarding severe and critically severe cases, the GBDT model also performed the best with a fivefold AUC of 0.918. In the external validation test of the LR-5 model using 72 cases of COVID-19 from Brunei, leukomonocyte (%) turned to show the highest fivefold AUC (0.917), followed by urea (0.867), age (0.826), and SPO2 (0.704). The findings confirm that the mortality prediction performance of the GBDT is better than the LR models in confirmed cases of COVID-19. The performance comparison seems independent of disease severity.

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大类 | 3 区 计算机科学
小类 | 3 区 计算机:人工智能
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Q2 COMPUTER SCIENCE, ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE
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第一作者单位: [1]Yidu Cloud Technol Inc, Hlth Work, 8F,9 Bldg,35 Huayuan North Rd, Beijing 100089, Peoples R China
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