Background. This study aimed to develop mortality-prediction models for patients with coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19). Methods. The training cohort included consecutive COVID-19 patients at the First People's Hospital of Jiangxia District in Wuhan, China, from 7 January 2020 to 11 February 2020. We selected baseline data through the stepwise Akaike information criterion and ensemble XGBoost (extreme gradient boosting) model to build mortality-prediction models. We then validated these models by randomly collected COVID-19 patients in Union Hospital, Wuhan, from 1 January 2020 to 20 February 2020. Results. A total of 296 COVID-19 patients were enrolled in the training cohort; 19 died during hospitalization and 277 discharged from the hospital. The clinical model developed using age, history of hypertension, and coronary heart disease showed area under the curve (AUC), 0.88 (95% confidence interval [CI], .80-.95); threshold, -2.6551; sensitivity, 92.31%; specificity, 77.44%; and negative predictive value (NPV), 99.34%. The laboratory model developed using age, high-sensitivity C-reactive protein, peripheral capillary oxygen saturation, neutrophil and lymphocyte count, D-dimer, aspartate aminotransferase, and glomerular filtration rate had a significantly stronger discriminatory power than the clinical model (P = .0157), with AUC, 0.98 (95% CI, .92-.99); threshold, -2.998; sensitivity, 100.00%; specificity, 92.82%; and NPV, 100.00%. In the subsequent validation cohort (N = 44), the AUC (95% CI) was 0.83 (.68-.93) and 0.88 (.75-.96) for the clinical model and laboratory model, respectively. Conclusions. We developed 2 predictive models for the in-hospital mortality of patients with COVID-19 in Wuhan that were validated in patients from another center.
第一作者单位:[1]Huazhong Univ Sci & Technol, Union Hosp, Tongji Med Coll, Dept Geriatr, Wuhan, Peoples R China
通讯作者:
通讯机构:[1]Huazhong Univ Sci & Technol, Union Hosp, Tongji Med Coll, Dept Geriatr, Wuhan, Peoples R China[5]First Peoples Hosp Jiangxia Dist, Wuhan, Peoples R China[6]HUST, Union Jiangnan Hosp, Wuhan, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式(GB/T 7714):
Wang Kun,Zuo Peiyuan,Liu Yuwei,et al.Clinical and Laboratory Predictors of In-hospital Mortality in Patients With Coronavirus Disease-2019: A Cohort Study in Wuhan, China[J].CLINICAL INFECTIOUS DISEASES.2020,71(16):2079-2088.doi:10.1093/cid/ciaa538.
APA:
Wang, Kun,Zuo, Peiyuan,Liu, Yuwei,Zhang, Meng,Zhao, Xiaofang...&Liu, Chengyun.(2020).Clinical and Laboratory Predictors of In-hospital Mortality in Patients With Coronavirus Disease-2019: A Cohort Study in Wuhan, China.CLINICAL INFECTIOUS DISEASES,71,(16)
MLA:
Wang, Kun,et al."Clinical and Laboratory Predictors of In-hospital Mortality in Patients With Coronavirus Disease-2019: A Cohort Study in Wuhan, China".CLINICAL INFECTIOUS DISEASES 71..16(2020):2079-2088