Purpose: Philadelphia-chromosome negative myeloproliferative neoplasms (MPN) exhibit phenotypic similarities with JAK/STAT-unmutated idiopathic erythrocytosis and thrombocytosis (IE/IT). We aimed to develop a clinical diagnostic model to discern MPN and IE/IT. Methods: A retrospective study was performed on 77 MPN patients and 32 IE/IT patients in our center from January 2018 to December 2023. We investigated the role of hemogram, cytokine and spleen size in differentiating MPN and IE/IT among newly onset erythrocytosis and thrombocytosis patients. Independent influencing factors were integrated into a nomogram for individualized risk prediction. The calibration and discrimination ability of the model were evaluated by concordance index (C-index), calibration curve. Results: MPN had significantly higher TNF-alpha level than IE/IT, and the TNF-alpha level is correlated with MF-grade. Multivariable analyses revealed that TNF-alpha, PLT count, age, size of spleen were independent diagnostic factors in differentiating MPN and IE/IT. Nomograms integrated the above 4 factors for differentiating MPN and IE/IT was internally validated and had good performance, the C-index of the model is 0.979. Conclusion: The elevation of serum TNF-alpha in MPN patients is of diagnostic significance and is correlated with the severity of myelofibrosis. The nomogram incorporating TNF-alpha with age, PLT count and spleen size presents a noteworthy tool in the preliminary discrimination of MPN patients and those with idiopathic erythrocytosis or thrombocytosis. This highlights the potential of cytokines as biomarkers in hematologic disorders.