Breast cancer (BC) is one of the most common malignancies. However, the existing pathological grading system cannot accurately and effectively predict the survival rate and immune checkpoint treatment response of BC patients. In this study, based on The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) database, a total of 7 immune-related genes (IRGs) were screened out to construct a prognostic model. Subsequently, the clinical prognosis, pathological characteristics, cancer-immunity cycle, tumour immune dysfunction and exclusion (TIDE) score, and immune checkpoint inhibitor (ICI) response were compared between the high- and low-risk groups. In addition, we determined the potential regulatory effect of NPR3 on BC cell proliferation, migration, and apoptosis. The model consisting of 7 IRGs was an independent prognostic factor. Patients with lower risk scores exhibited longer survival times. Moreover, the expression of NPR3 was increased but the expression of PD-1, PD-L1, and CTLA-4 was decreased in the high-risk group compared to the low-risk group. In addition, compared with si-NC, si-NPR3 suppressed proliferation and migration but promoted apoptosis in both MDA-MB-231 and MCF-7 cells. This study presents a model for predicting survival outcomes and provides a strategy to guide effective personalized immunotherapy in BC patients.© 2023. The Author(s).